Understanding the Why and the What
Dr. Julius Korir, Health Policy Researcher and Analyst at Kenyatta University, Kenya opened the discussion by defining investment cases as documents that link economics, policy analysis, and health evidence into a compelling argument for action.
"An investment case is the bridge between evidence and political action. It shows the real cost of doing nothing and the immense economic and social gains countries stand to achieve when they prioritise NCD prevention and control,” he noted.
This framing set the tone for the discussions that followed. Investment cases are practical tools that help governments answer critical questions: What is the national burden of disease? How much would it cost to scale up proven interventions? And what are the projected benefits over 5 to 10 years? The session highlighted that these analyses also consider institutional realities including governance structures, financing gaps, and the capacity of countries to implement recommended interventions.
Understanding the How
Representatives from Kenya and Ghana - both country members of the FAN Network - shared how investment cases are informing decisions.
Kenya’s presentation on cardiovascular disease (CVD) modelling highlighted the scale of the challenge: CVDs account for roughly a quarter of hospital admissions and remain one of the top causes of mortality. The modelling drew from claims data and national health information systems, showing that early screening and improved outpatient care could reduce dependence on costly inpatient treatment.
The analysis also noted that general government spending on health stands at only 2.2% of GDP, far below the 5% benchmark needed for strong universal health coverage (UHC). 30% of total health expenditure is made through out-of-pocket payments often exposing households to impoverishing healthcare expenditure.
“Our modelling shows that investing early in cardiovascular care is not only lifesaving, but also economically transformative. A 10-year horizon gives us an ROI of nearly 380 percent, clear evidence that strategic financing of CVDs strengthens both the health system and the economy,” said Dr. Samson Kuhora, Head of Benefits Design at Social Health Authority, Kenya.
Ghana’s story offered a different angle, demonstrating how investment cases can shape fiscal policy. The country faces an estimated annual economic loss of GHC 668 million (USD 58.5 million) due to tobacco-related illness, more than seven times the revenue generated from tobacco taxes before reforms. This evidence supported sweeping changes, including adjustments to the excise tax structure and the introduction of levies on sugar-sweetened beverages. These reforms unlocked more than GHS 1.3 billion (USD 113.9 million) in combined revenue from tobacco, alcohol, and sugar sweetened beverages, funds that can strengthen health financing and support NCD services.
“Our tobacco investment case proved that public health measures can drive revenue growth. Within a single year, excise earnings from sugar-sweetened beverages rose by almost 80 percent, and tobacco revenues more than doubled. This is the power of evidence-informed tax reform,” noted Labram Musa, Executive Director, Vision for Accelerated Sustainable Development (VAST Ghana).
Participants used the discussion to probe practical challenges: data availability, how to use tools such as the OneHealth Tool, and how institutional analysis can help predict political support or bottlenecks.
From knowledge to implementation
In 2026, the FAN learning series for Sub-Saharan Africa will dive deeper into economic modelling, fiscal space analysis, and strategies for translating evidence into political and budgetary action. Countries will also be supported to initiate or refine their own investment cases, backed by peer learning exchanges between early adopters, like Kenya and Ghana, and countries just beginning their journey.
With the right tools, data, and collaboration, countries can make stronger, more strategic investments that protect both lives and economies. Across Sub-Saharan Africa, there is a growing consensus that smart, evidence-driven investments in NCDs are not just a health imperative, they are a foundation for economic resilience and sustainable development.
