A new NCD Economic Modelling Framework for Kenya 

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) account for 11% of total health spending in Kenya, and most of that goes to treating illness rather than preventing it. This imbalance reflects not only resource limitations but the fact that policymakers often lack clear, local economic evidence to guide investment decisions or show the value of early and sustained action. 

This project will develop an NCD Economic Modelling Framework to close that gap. It will be built on strong institutional leadership, continuous engagement with decision-makers, and current, local data. 

The proposed framework will generate evidence on the economic burden of NCDs, assess the cost-effectiveness of high-priority interventions, identify financing gaps, and quantify the potential health and economic gains from more efficient investment. The results will support advocacy and policy dialogue for resource mobilization, budget planning, spending efficiency, and program design, while ensuring NCD financing are integrated into Kenya’s UHC agenda and national budgets. 

1. To estimate the economic burden of major NCDs in Kenya, including both direct and indirect costs to the health system, households, and the economy. 

2. Assess the current NCD financing landscape by each county in Kenya. 

3. Model the cost, cost-effectiveness, and return-on-investment (ROI) of scaling up high-priority NCD interventions. 

4. To identify funding gaps and efficiency opportunities within the NCD financing landscape and propose strategies for improved resource allocation. 

5. Analyze feasible fiscal space and budget impact scenarios for increased NCD financing. 

6. Evaluate the equity and financial protection impacts of enhanced NCD investments 

7. To develop policy briefs and advocacy materials that translate economic evidence into actionable recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders. 

Why It Matters 

Previous investment cases have had limited influence because they relied on data sets that were not robust, involved minimal engagement with the National Treasury, Parliament, and county governments, and were not aligned with national planning and budgeting cycles. As a result, their findings rarely translated into actionable recommendations or reached the right decision-making windows. 

Economic modelling offers a clearer way forward. It helps show the consequences of underinvestment in NCDs and the potential gains from targeted action. In Kenya, existing evidence is often fragmented and disease-specific, leaving policymakers without the full picture needed for effective planning and budgeting. 

The economic model will be updated regularly by the Core Country Team in close collaboration with the Ministry of Health’s Planning Department.

Incorporating the latest epidemiological, demographic, and cost data, the model will be fully embedded in the annual budget cycle. By including updates in the Division of Cancer and NCDs’ workplan, the framework becomes a living tool that continuously informs planning, resource allocation, and decision-making. 

Project Leads